Good afternoon folks! We certainly have been enjoying this spring like weather yesterday and today and even the colder temps, with several ridgeline sites reporting sub freezing temps this morning. Mt Mitchell dipped down to 28°F with a low wind chill of 13°F! Starting Wednesday we'll begin our climb back to summer like conditions, with temps returning to the low 80's by the weekend, alongside enough moisture to fire up isolated thunderstorms each afternoon. We do not expect any widespread rain from Wednesday into the weekend, only pop up showers and thunderstorms late each afternoon. There will be a passing disturbance late Wednesday that will produce high clouds and isolated showers, but this will clear out by Thursday and sunshine will continue to dominate into at least Saturday.
We'll start out the day Wednesday with temps once again in the 30's and 40's across the most of the region, with high clouds developing as the day moves along. NW flow remains overhead and an upper level piece of energy swings near the region late in the day, allowing isolated showers to develop along the TN line. Temps will push into the upper 50's for the higher elevations, while the valleys reach the low - mid 70's. Cloud cover will take most of the night to clear the region and overnight lows are expected to settle into the mid 40's - low 50's.
Thursday through Saturday will be quiet with increasing warmth and as high pressure moves east, southerly flow will increase which will lead to a noticeable uptick in moisture levels. Temps will reach the low - mid 60's along the ridgelines Thursday and Friday, while the valleys push into the mid - upper 70's. Saturday should be our first day back in the 80's, but if sunny skies sit overhead long enough on Friday, we could see towns such as Bryson City, Sylva and Franklin hit the 80°F mark. Thunderstorm and shower chances remain isolated each afternoon and the best location, although difficult to nail down this time of the year, will be along the escarpment and nearby ridgelines. Overnight lows settle into the low - upper 50's each night, with fog developing along bodies of water such as rives and lakes.
Sunday into early next week may bring us scattered to widespread rain chances, but we'll wait till Thursday to post the next discussion, to allow the models more time.