Good afternoon folks! A few thunderstorms are developing along the ridgelines this afternoon as expected, however our previous forecast for increasing shower coverage on Thursday will likely not play out as planned. The models hint at a slight reduction in coverage compared to today, so we are going with another round of isolated thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon, instead of the previously forecasted scattered thunderstorms. The front is still expected to swing through early in the day Friday, with showers dotting the landscape till the late morning hours and picking back up again Friday evening. Showers will continue overnight into Saturday and as the front stalls across the region, deep moisture from the south moves in, allowing widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop. Flooding will not be an issue, but this rain will certainly put a damper on your outdoor plans Saturday and Sunday is not looking any better. A second front passes through the area early Monday, ushering in sunny skies and near normal temps, which is something we have not enjoyed for over a week!
Thursday brings us another muggy day with a mixed bag of sun and clouds after midday, due to isolated thunderstorms popping up across the region. Temps are likely to be the same as Wednesday, perhaps a degree or two cooler, as they push into the mid 60's - low 80's depending upon elevation. Coverage increases slightly Thursday night, with more mostly cloudy skies overhead, holding temps to the upper 50's for most of the region.
Friday through Sunday will be our most active days and rainfall totals over the 72 hour period will tally up to 2 - 3" depending upon location. Roughly a half inch of rain will fall on Friday and into the wee hours of the morning on Saturday, with up to an inch of rain falling on both Saturday and Sunday. There may be a break in the action during the early - mid afternoon hours on Friday, but coverage is expected to increase overnight into Saturday, becoming widespread by Saturday afternoon. Thunderstorms will attribute to most of the expected rainfall totals and it seems the best window for thunderstorm development is Saturday afternoon. Sunday offers up another round of light - moderate showers around the noon hour, taking till the late evening hours to wind down to isolated coverage. Temps go from the mid 60's - upper 70's Friday to the upper 50's - low 70's by Sunday. Overnight lows generally will be in the mid 50's - low 60's Friday and Saturday, but are expected to cool down to the mid 40's - low 50's Sunday night under clearing skies.
Monday into the middle of next week offers up sunshine and temps that are more seasonal, rising to the low 60's - mid 70's depending upon elevation. This fair weather may extend into the late next week, so if you need to cut, dry and bail hay, next week provides us a good window.
Our next discussion will come out Friday afternoon and focus on the ongoing rainfall, the breakout of thunderstorms on Saturday and the upcoming dry spell next week.