Good afternoon folks! Temps are holding to the upper 80's this afternoon in the deeper valleys, while the ridgelines sit in the mid 60's. Some clouds move in tonight but clear out tomorrow and then moisture begins to creep into the area starting Thursday, building up enough on Friday to allow scattered showers to develop. Thunderstorms are possible Friday and Saturday, with scattered pop up showers likely (similar to a summertime setup) late Friday into Sunday. We are not expecting a washout as expected rainfall totals only amount to a half inch region wide for all three days; up to an inch for those who experience a passing thunderstorm. Dry weather returns early next week, possibly as soon as next Monday. Temps gradually cool down with each passing day, going from the upper 80's today to the mid - upper 70's Saturday and Sunday.
Tonight temps will settle into the mid - upper 50's for the lower elevations, while the ridgelines dip to the low - mid 50's under passing clouds. Sunshine returns later in the day tomorrow, allowing temps to return to the mid 80's for the valleys, while the higher elevations enjoy the upper 60's - low 70's. Clouds return Wednesday night, but only because moisture slowly creeps into the region, capping overnight lows to the mid - upper 50's once again.
Thursday through Sunday features chances for rain, however the best chance for passing showers and thunderstorms will be Friday and Saturday afternoons. Because this setup is similar to what we find during the summer months, there is no time frame or organization to the shower development, simply instability playing off the terrain influence. With this in mind, areas closer to the SC state line (escarpment) and nearby ridgelines stand the best chance for rain. Temps Thursday reach the upper 60's - low 80's, while Friday offers up mid 60's - upper 70's due to increasing cloud cover from developing showers and thunderstorms. Temps struggle to hit the mid 60's along the ridgelines and mid - upper 70's across the valleys this weekend, with a slight chance for mostly sunny skies just before sunset on Sunday.
We'll post another forecast discussion Thursday afternoon and focus on the short term rainfall and minor cool down this weekend.