Warmer than Average; Rain Thur - Fri
Good morning folks! We did not post yesterday and for that I apologize as our family was held up with Easter activities and holiday traffic coming back home. Regardless, the weather this past weekend from Thursday into Saturday was pretty extreme for this time of the year. Asheville set their third wettest day on record at 5.29", which is astounding as their records go back to 1869! While Asheville penciled in a record rainfall, areas near downtown and elsewhere along the escarpment dealt with flooding as over 5 - 7" of rain fell, with two stations surpassing the 7" mark; Pisgah Forest at 7.09" and Clear Creek at Townsend at 7.01"! These amounts are usually tied to a tropical cyclone but for mid spring they're very impressive. As the system exited to the northeast Friday evening, colder air wrapped in and the upper level low moved overhead Saturday, dropping 3 - 5" of snow across the ridgelines, with Mt LeConte picking up 4" (pic above from High on LeConte blog). Thankfully we had pleasant weather to wrap up the Easter weekend but as always, you never can say never in SW NC when it comes to the winter season.
Looking ahead we do not expect sub freezing temps as warmer than average conditions play out today through Thursday, cooling down to near normal levels Friday as a front crosses the region. Sunshine should dominate the landscape today, Tuesday and part of Wednesday, followed by showers Thursday into Friday, possibly lingering into Saturday. That possibility for showers on Saturday depends on whether or not the frontal passage is a clean one, meaning the upper level energies merge. We are hoping for a pleasant Saturday after last weekend's cold snap but the keep the possibility open for light rain Saturday morning.
Temps today through Wednesday reach the upper 70's - low 80's across the valleys, while the ridgelines enjoy temps in the low - mid 60's. Sunshine will reign supreme today and tomorrow, however clouds may build later in the day Wednesday, ahead of the incoming moisture and frontal passage on Thursday. Overnight lows settle into the low - upper 40's tonight, mid 40's - low 50's Tuesday and Wednesday night, with Wednesday night the warmer of the three nights due to increasing clouds; clear skies tonight and Tuesday night.
Thursday into Friday seems like our best bet for rain to return to the region and based on the model timing it looks like a late Thursday evening into Friday morning frontal passage, with showers developing as early as late morning on Thursday. We don't expect a washout this go around but enough rain should fall to hinder outdoor plans, with temps in the mid 60's - upper 70's Thursday and upper 50's - mid 70's Friday.
Our next discussion will come out Wednesday morning and we'll focus on the upcoming rain event with more specifics related to timing and rainfall amounts. Fingers crossed the two systems phase and we have a dry Saturday, but for now plan for lingering light showers.