Good afternoon folks! We are certainly enjoying this cooler weather setup after such a warm start to the spring season, but for those who are not, you'll only have to endure another 12 - 18 hours as slightly above average temps return Tuesday. Sunshine is expected to be overhead the rest of today, Tuesday, Wednesday and perhaps even Thursday early morning, before southerly flow provides enough moisture to develop clouds across the area. A strong frontal passage will occur sometime Friday and with it bring widespread rain and strong to severe thunderstorms, with a second cool down slated for Saturday and Sunday. All in all, the week ahead looks quiet with heavy rain a good bet to end the work and school week, followed by a mixed bag weekend (not soggy, but not sunny, not warm but not cold either).
Temps tonight will flirt with or dip just below the freezing mark for the more sheltered coves and hollers as ideal radiational cooling conditions setup across the valleys; clear skies, winds calming down to a light breeze. Elsewhere across the region, the higher elevations will still hold onto NW winds around 10 - 20mph, with temps dipping into the low - mid 30's for the valleys and mid - upper 30's for the ridgelines. Patchy frost is a possibility for the lower elevations but a widespread freeze is not.
Tuesday and Wednesday keep sunny skies overhead, with temps rising to the upper 50's - mid 70's Tuesday, pushing a few degrees warmer on Wednesday. Overnight lows Tuesday night settle into the low - mid 40's for the valleys, while the ridgelines hold to the mid - upper 40's; all under clear skies. Wednesday night on the other hand will feature a gradual increase in cloud cover, capping temps to the upper 40's - mid 50's.
If mostly cloudy skies hold out long enough, Thursday morning will feature some sunshine but southerly flow should win out and high clouds will dominate the landscape, although temps are expected to capitalize on southerly winds, pushing to the low 60's - upper 70's depending upon elevation. We do not expect any showers to develop till after midnight and even then coverage will be isolated at best.
Friday into Saturday features a frontal passage that will likely lead to washout conditions Friday, as widespread showers accompanied by a band of heavy rain sweeps the region. Temps only hit the upper 50's - low 70's Friday, with temps dropping to the upper 40's - low 60's Saturday as cooler air follows the frontal passage.
Our next discussion will come out Wednesday afternoon and we'll focus on the upcoming rain event and subsequent cool down this weekend.