Heavy Rain Monday into Tuesday
Good afternoon folks! Passing clouds and a few showers along the TN line will round out the weekend, with an upper level low expected to cross the region late Monday, followed by a cold front Tuesday late morning. These two features will bring us scattered to widespread showers with numerous thunderstorms that will be capable of heavy downpours and hail. We are not expecting a severe weather event, but this being our first round of strong thunderstorms this spring, its simply worth noting that hail is a possibility. Showers exit Tuesday afternoon and sunshine returns Wednesday, lingering into part of Thursday but southwesterly flow ahead of the next frontal passage will return showers to the region late Thursday. Spotty showers remain across the region Friday and possibly exit early Saturday but we will not know the exact timing of the front till Tuesday. Temps all the while will remain above normal and we foresee no sub freezing or even chilly temps, with the coldest temps arriving Friday night; low 40's at best for the ridgelines.
Temps Monday will reach the upper 50's along the ridgelines, while the valleys flirt with the mid 70's and the afternoon high for Tuesday will likely be a degree or two warmer than Monday. Clouds remain overhead both days, however if sunshine does poke through this will only serve to enhance thunderstorm activity as the atmosphere looks unstable over the next 48 hours. Scattered showers develop around midday Monday and become widespread shortly after sunset, continuing overnight into Tuesday, eventually scaling back to scattered coverage by the late morning hours and isolated coverage by the early - mid afternoon hours. Thunderstorms are more likely to develop late Monday afternoon and overall rainfall totals will eclipse 1 - 1.5" for all of SW NC, with the highest totals nearing 3 - 4" as we expect several thunderstorms to essentially stall in a few spots. Overnight lows settle into the mid - upper 50's Monday night, dipping into the mid 40's - low 50's Tuesday night under clearing skies.
Sunshine Wednesday and the first half of Thursday will allow temps to soar into the upper 50's - upper 70's Wednesday afternoon, cooling off slightly to the upper 50's - mid 70's Thursday afternoon as clouds develop late; overnight lows dip into the 40's and 50's both nights.
Isolated showers are likely to return along the escarpment Thursday afternoon and evening but for the most part we expect region wide development on Friday as a warm front lifts north, interacting with a passing cold front just to our north. We'll focus on this time frame late Tuesday afternoon, when our next discussion comes out but for now we are not expecting a washout like we are for Monday and Tuesday.