Good morning folks! We'll enjoy a dry day today with showers sweeping the region late tonight, exiting early in the morning on Sunday, followed by sunshine overhead around midday. Sunshine lingers into Monday and for Tuesday it seems the low pressure system that would have brought us snow will only bring us high clouds and a very slight chance for a passing snow shower. This is the main reason we waited till today to take a deeper look at the possibility for snow as the majority of the models have moved the low pressure system further to the south as it tracks across the Florida panhandle and up the coast. This could trend northward, however at this point in time we are only going with token flakes at best for the highest elevations Tuesday. Sunshine takes over once again Wednesday and temps will return to normal, with a possible late week rain event sometime next Friday and Saturday (nothing major, just passing showers much like tonight).
Temps today will climb to the low 50's along the ridgelines and warm to the low 70's throughout the valleys, with southwesterly winds around 5 - 10mph. Clouds thicken this evening and showers move in shortly after midnight, capping temps to the upper 30's - mid 40's depending upon elevation. A few wet snowflakes may fall around sunrise for locations like Mt LeConte or Mt Mitchell with everyone else waking up to rain that should come to an end by 9 - 10am, if not earlier. As the front exits to the east we expect sunshine to return around midday Sunday, but temps will only reach the upper 30's - mid 50's depending upon elevation. Factor in NW winds around 10 - 20mph and it will be a fairly chilly day but not cold enough to keep us from going outside. Rainfall totals for the most part will amount to a quarter - half inch across the region with a few spots coming close to the inch mark. Temps Sunday night will plunge into the low - mid 20's along the ridgelines and settle into the upper 20's for the lower elevations, however NW winds around 5 - 10mph may keep widespread frost from forming. If you live in a sheltered cove then frost is a good bet, although most of know not to plant till mid - late April anyways.
Monday offers up sunshine and Tuesday brings us high passing clouds and the occasional snowflake as some moisture makes its way north, with the bulk of the action focused along the coast. Temps Monday and Tuesday will be very similar to Sunday, only rising to the low 40's along the ridgelines and mid 50's for the valleys, settling into the upper 20's - mid 30's both nights.
Wednesday and Thursday mark the return of seasonal temps with afternoon highs in the mid 60's for the valleys and the models point to a late week frontal passage that could bring us rain Friday into Saturday. Our next discussion will come out Monday and by then we should have a better handle on the timing of the late week rainfall and of course provide any updates regarding the slight chance for snow on Tuesday.