Good afternoon folks! Our forecast for Monday was a bust as we called for a mixed bag of sun and clouds and instead we experienced cloudy skies and passing light showers, although the temps were somewhat reasonable. Looking ahead we expect another round of high clouds Wednesday, becoming mostly cloudy before sunset, followed by light showers breaking out sometime after midnight. Shower coverage should remain scattered throughout the day on Thursday as deep moisture out of the southwest pushes over our high terrain, squeezing out light - moderate showers. A front will approach from the west on Thursday and cross our region early in the day Friday, sometime shortly before or after sunrise. Precip will be heavy at times, ending later in the evening but only as light, intermittent showers as the bulk of the action pushes east by the mid afternoon hours. Sunshine returns Saturday and lingers into early next week with a possible period of cloud cover Sunday night as a weak system crosses the region, mainly affecting the TN line. Temps will be above normal through Friday (low 50's - low 60's) and cool down to slightly below normal levels Saturday (upper 30's - low 50's) into early next week, with freezing temps likely for the higher elevations each night starting Friday night.
Temps Tuesday night will settle into the upper 30's for the valley, while the ridgelines flirt with the low - mid 40's as weak radiational cooling conditions setup shop. Partly cloudy skies late will gradually increase during the day on Wednesday, becoming mostly cloudy by the late afternoon hours, however temps will prevail and rebound to the mid 50's - low 60's across most of the region; not much change as you drop in elevation.
Wednesday night into Thursday morning is when we expect showers to develop, very spotty at first and focused along the N GA and SC state lines as moisture begins to infiltrate the region from the southwest. As the column becomes saturated throughout the day Thursday, all of SW NC will experience spotty light - moderate showers, peaking in coverage early Friday morning as the front crosses the area. Rainfall totals will on average hit the 1 - 2" mark for the event, with the highest amounts focused in the classic SW flow locations such as Highlands, Cashiers, Lake Toxaway and Brevard. We will notice shower coverage winding down sometime around 2 - 4pm Friday and come to an end by the mid - late evening hours, with clouds taking most of the night to clear the region. Temps Thursday soar to the upper 50's - upper 60's as SW winds around 10 - 20mph push warm, moist air into the region, alongside gust up to 40mph across the ridgelines. Temps cool off slightly to the upper 40's - mid 50's Thursday night and return to the low 50's - low 60's Friday, dropping to the upper 20's - upper 30's Friday night. Breezy conditions will wind down post frontal, with only a light breeze likely for Friday night.
We'll notice a drop in humidity levels this weekend as we enjoy a mild arctic airmass, with sunshine overhead both Saturday and Sunday, however it may be a bit breezy Sunday afternoon along the ridgelines. Temps this weekend will be roughly 8 - 10 degrees cooler than this week, only reaching the upper 30's - low 50's Saturday, warming to the low 40's - mid 50's Sunday.
Our next discussion will come out Thursday afternoon and will focus on the rain event winding down, in addition to the minor cool down scheduled for this weekend.