Good afternoon folks! I apologize for the delay in getting a discussion out, but things are back in order on the home front and moving forward the every other day posting pattern will continue; next post comes out Saturday. Isolated light showers and drizzle continue to dot the landscape today and will wind down early Friday morning, with a second round moving in Friday afternoon but this should also be light and nothing to worry about; keep those plans but grab a rain jacket. Saturday brings us a break in the pattern and we may even experience a few hours of sunshine but of course this won't last as heavy rain is slated to return late Saturday night and carry throughout the day Sunday. As the low pressure system kicks to the east Sunday night, colder air will rush in and turn rain over to snow for the TN line but we do not see anything that points to a region wide event at this time. Colder air will linger through the rest of next week, with a second front moving in Wednesday that will reinforce the cold and bring temps down to January levels.
Friday will be another damp day with high clouds overhead and temps rising to comfortable levels for the first day of March, hitting the upper 40's - upper 50's depending upon elevation. Light rain returns closer to sunset and winds down shortly before sunrise on Saturday, with overnight lows in the low - mid 40's (not a terrible night but not ideal).
Saturday seems like our best shot to get outside and do some yard work or explore as high clouds pass overhead, with periods of sunshine allowing temps to hit the upper 40's along the ridgelines and low 60's for the valley. Showers return after midnight and temps will settle into the low - mid 40's once again, with a tenth of an inch likely across most of the region by sunrise.
Sunday may be a washout as scattered to widespread showers pelt the region and shower intensities will be heavy at times, with 1 - 1.5" of rain falling over a 24 hour period. Temps are held to the upper 40's - low 50's for most of the region as cold air damming tries to establish itself across our region, but should fail due to the Great Balsams and Southern Highlands Plateau. Showers dry up shortly before or after sunrise Monday, however temps will crash to the mid 20's - low 30's before this occurs, allowing rain to kick over to snow along the TN line. Not much in the way of accumulations will occur, perhaps an inch or two and for those of us in the valley we will be lucky to see a passing snow shower.
Monday through Wednesday features sunny skies but temps struggling to rise past the upper 20's - low 40's depending upon elevation, with Tuesday night likely to be our coldest night of the week as single digits embrace the higher elevations. We'll focus more on the upcoming cold snap when we post our next discussion Saturday afternoon.