Good afternoon folks! Although most of the rain missed us this morning with the bulk of it falling across the entire state of TN, we'll pick up more rain tonight as the front crosses the region. We don't expect a washout but we do expect heavy showers at times and most of the rain will be off to our east shortly after sunrise on Sunday. Sunshine will setup shop Sunday and linger through Tuesday, possibly Wednesday, and for late next week the models offer varying scenarios that lead to little confidence, but the pattern favors a round of showers sometime Thursday or Friday. Temps all the while will be somewhat normal as they hit the 50's each day next week, with overnight lows flirting with the freezing mark each night for the lower elevations. The higher elevations will of course be colder, but it looks like only a few nights will be available to make snow at the regional ski resorts.
Temps tonight will dip into the mid 40's - low 50's and a half inch of rain will fall across the region before sunrise, with the front crossing shortly thereafter. As the front crosses the region Sunday morning, NW winds will pick up and become steady around 15mph for the valleys and 25 - 30mph for the ridgelines, with gust up to 50mph at times. This cold air intrusion will also combat the welcomed sunshine as we hit our daily highs sometime around 9 - 11am (upper 40's - upper 50's) and then drop the remainder of the day, eventually settling into the mid 20's - low 30's with strong NW winds continiugin into Monday.
Sometime after midday the NW winds will calm down and with sunshine overhead temps return to the low 40's - mid 50's depending upon elevation, with a slight warm-up to the mid 40's - upper 50's Tuesday and Wednesday as fair weather continues. Overnight lows should follow suit, dipping into the upper 20's - mid 30's Monday night but settling into the low - upper 30's Wednesday night as moisture increases across the region.
Beyond Wednesday our crystal ball becomes extremely foggy as some models say continuing fair weather while others bring in region wide rain, however nothing like we been dealing with as of late. With this in mind our next discussion will come out on Monday and we'll focus on the mid week time frame and perhaps extend the outlook into next Saturday.
Enjoy the dry weather but be sure to add a layer on Sunday and Monday to combat the strong NW winds!