Good Morning Folks! It's mid morning on Sunday and over the past 24 hours we have picked up roughly a tenth to a quarter of an inch for the majority of the region, with spotty showers still traversing the area from the southwest to northeast. Since Friday morning, we have picked up a half inch up to 1.5" for the bulk of the area, which is slightly less than we forecasted on Friday but the pattern is still playing out as expected. Spotty showers will continue throughout the day today and heavy rain swings through tonight, clearing out by early Monday morning, setting up a fairly nice reprieve to start the new work and school week. After some much needed drying out and sunshine Monday, rain moves back in late Tuesday and lingers into Wednesday, eventually pushing out once again, however several more rounds will be waiting in line to swing through Thursday and Friday. Overall, we can expect another 3 - 4" of rain to fall from today into Thursday or Friday, with locally higher amounts closer to the N GA line. Temps all the while will be above freezing and with the exception of Monday, we'll experience temps in the 40's and low - mid 50's, setting up a fairly gloomy and chilly week.
Temps today push into the upper 40's - low 50's (not much movement with elevation) and dip back into the upper 30's - low 40's tonight. Spotty showers today will amount to a tenth of an inch for most of us, however tonight we'll pick up an inch on average for any given location across SW NC, with possible higher amounts closer to the N GA line as precip swings from the southwest to the northeast.
Monday will likely be our only day this week with sunshine and if we picked up rain instead of sunny skies, we would also be looking at flooding come mid week but this drying out period will help keep flooding issues at bay. Temps will only climb to the low 40's - mid 50's depending upon elevation, so not a spring like day but we'll take what we can get as sunny skies develop by the mid morning hours, with clouds filling in closer to sunset. Clouds continue to fill in Monday night and temps dip into the low - upper 30's overnight, however precip should hold off to Tuesday afternoon, all but ensuring no wintry precip develops. This is not set in stone, however the only wintry precip chances we foresee will be along the ridgelines where only a handful of us live and even then warmer temps invade quickly Tuesday morning to kick any wintry mix over to rain.
Tuesday and Wednesday will feature soaking rains with anywhere from 2 - 3" over the 48 hour period and temps will respond, only reaching the low - mid 40's Tuesday, eventually warming to the upper 40's - low 50's Wednesday. Overnight lows Tuesday night dip into the upper 30's for most of the region and warm to the low - mid 40's Wednesday night.
Thursday and Friday also feature additional rounds of rain, however we are beginning to enter our five day forecast period and beyond, which is when confidence levels decrease among the model outputs. With this in mind we will simply mention that more rain will fall and temps will generally be the same as mid week; perhaps a degree or two warmer.
Our next discussion will come out Tuesday and we'll focus on the mid week heavy rain event and also the late week and weekend forecast. Till then, stay dry!