The Southwest Rain Train

February 15, 2019

Good Morning Folks! Step outside today and enjoy the dry weather as the next 5 – 7 days (perhaps even longer) will be wet to say the least, with upwards of 6 – 7” falling across the area. Of course, not all of this will fall at once, but we will have several rounds of rain that will drop two or three inches at a time, with numerous waves of rainfall that bring us a half inch up to an inch each go around. Temps all the while will be above freezing and at times the southwesterly flow will push temps to above average levels, with the warmer weather being our only silver lining for the next 5 – 7 days. 


Temps today hit the mid 40’s – upper 50’s depending upon elevation, under thickening cloud cover, with showers developing closer to sunset and peaking in coverage overnight into Saturday. Rainfall totals will likely hit an inch for most everyone across SW NC, with higher amounts found closer to the N GA state line. This will be a reoccurring theme moving forward as the overall flow will be out of the southwest this weekend and next week, putting locations close to N GA in the prime spot for the highest totals across SW NC. Temps tonight settle into the low – upper 40’s across the region and rainfall becomes moderate – heavy at times closer to midnight, winding down Saturday morning. 


Showers may take several hours to exit the region tomorrow morning, but it does seem a break in the action will occur past midday, allowing folks to get some time in outside or even allow the WCU Baseball team to squeeze in their doubleheader before more rain develops later that evening. Another round of rain moves in Sunday morning and will take all day and most of the night to kick out of the area. Generally, a quarter inch of rain or less will fall Saturday, more so during the morning hours, whereas an inch or two will fall Sunday into Sunday night. Temps Saturday reach the mid 40’s along the ridgelines and warm to the mid 50’s across the lower elevations, with a slight warm-up to the low – upper 50’s on Sunday. Overnight lows will be fairly uniform across the area both Saturday and Sunday night, dipping into the low – mid 40’s each night. 


Monday offers up another break in the action, however rain returns Monday night and this time with a vengeance as heavy rain is likely to develop late Monday night and not let up till sometime Wednesday. The models also point to showers continuing well into late next week, but for now we will stop at Wednesday as confidence dwindles anytime we forecast beyond five days. Several inches of rain will fall from Monday night into Wednesday and we expect flooding to occur during this time, mainly due to antecedent conditions after picking up 2 – 3” of rain Friday through Sunday. If you experience small flooding during moderate events, be prepared for another round and perhaps worse if the models are correct in keeping the rain train going well into late next week. Temps Monday and Tuesday struggle to reach the upper 40’s along the ridgelines, but the valleys hold to the mid 50’s Monday and low 50’s Tuesday. 


This is an evolving forecast and the timing of the rain may change but the take home should be that 6 – 7” of rain will fall from Friday evening into Wednesday, with the likelihood of more rain falling Thursday and Friday of next week. We will come out with our next forecast discussion Sunday morning. 
 

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