Good Afternoon Folks! It's late in the day on Wednesday as we write this discussion so we will focus on Thursday and beyond, which features one last round of sunshine and then a stretch of damp and cloudy days. Sunshine tomorrow coupled with southerly flow will push temps into the low 60's across the valley and sometime around midnight a round of light showers will sweep the region, winding down Friday morning. A second disturbance swings through Friday night, ending Saturday morning and there is a chance for sunshine Saturday afternoon, but its more likely high clouds remain overhead. A warm front pushes into the region Sunday afternoon, prompting more rain to fall and then we deal with a damp and cloudy setup Monday, before another heavy rain event sets up shop sometime Tuesday or Wednesday. Temps all the while will be above freezing so we only expect rain, however our neighbors in the NW part of the state may deal with a wintry mix next week (plenty of time remains to flush out the details).
Temps tomorrow will start out in the mid 20's for the valleys while the ridgelines only dip into the low 30's due to ideal radiational cooling conditions (clear skies, little to no wind and a dry airmass). Sunshine and southerly flow quickly push temps to the low 50's along the ridgelines and low 60's throughout the lower elevations. Clouds build closer to sunset and thicken during the evening hours, with light showers arriving shortly after midnight, winding down Friday morning as the front essentially wrings out over the mountains. Temps will dip into the upper 30's - mid 40's and windy conditions accompany the front, with gust up to 40mph along the ridgelines.
Friday, Saturday and Sunday all feature rain, however it will not rain the entire time as we expect showers to ramp back up Friday afternoon and peak in coverage late Friday night. Coverage winds down early Saturday morning and its possible sunshine pokes through the thinning cloud cover Saturday afternoon, but we are sticking with more than clouds than at this time. Clouds will increase overnight into Sunday and showers return late Sunday afternoon as a warm front pushes north, allowing light - moderate showers to develop before sunset. Coverage remains steady throughout the night and winds down a bit Monday morning, however the overall flow out of the southwest will keep light and isolated showers going throughout the day Monday. Temps Friday through Sunday wont move much, rising to the mid 50's each afternoon and dipping into the low - mid 40's each night for the valleys, while the ridgelines cool down to the upper 30's each night and only warm to the upper 40's each afternoon. Its possible we hit the upper 50's Saturday if more sunshine develops than expected.
Next week is not set in stone but it seems another heavy rain event is likely for Tuesday and Wednesday, with details lacking among the models at this time. With this in mind we will only mention the possibility today and when our next discussion comes out Friday, we will be able to provide more details regarding timing and rainfall amounts.