Good Afternoon Folks! We're expecting scattered showers to develop later this evening and continue throughout the night with decent rainfall totals by sunrise. Shower coverage winds down closer to sunrise Tuesday but showers return later that morning with heavy rain sweeping the region during the early afternoon hours, followed by light showers that should linger into the evening hours. Colder air rushes in on the backside of the departing front late Tuesday night and allows any lingering moisture to kick over to snow for the TN line with light accumulations at best; nothing to write home about. Sunshine Wednesday will be offset by cooler temps, however Thursday looks gorgeous as temps rise to above normal levels under continuing sunshine. A late week front swings through sometime Friday, exiting Saturday, however the models are undergoing significant disagreement at this time so we will not go into any details beyond Thursday.
Temps tonight settle into the mid 40's - low 50's depending upon elevation, alongside light to moderate showers that will pepper the region for most of the night, amounting to a quarter - half inch of rain by sunrise. Winds will pick up across the higher elevations, becoming steady around 15 - 20mph with gust up to 30mph.
Tuesday will be our wettest day of the week as 1 - 2" of rain falls across the region, most of it falling within a 2 - 3 hour window during the early afternoon hours. The front will keep winds out of the southwest going around 15 - 25mph across the higher elevations, gusting to 45mph at times, while the lower elevations deal with wind speeds around 10 - 20mph. Temps Tuesday reach the low 50's - low 60's due to southwesterly flow ahead of the front, however after the front passes colder air rushes in with overnight lows in the low - upper 20's. Light rain showers after sunset will gradually wind down and also transition to snow along the TN line, with perhaps a dusting by sunrise for the favored NW flow areas. Strong winds remain across the region overnight and with heavy rainfall several downed trees are likely by sunrise.
Wednesday and Thursday will bring us sunshine but first we'll deal with a typical February day Wednesday as temps only reach the upper 30's - low 50's depending upon elevation. Factor in strong NW winds around 10 - 25mph, gusting to 45mph along the ridgelines and it will feel much colder. It will liekly take till the late evening hours for wind speeds to wind down to a light breeze. Wednesday night features clear skies with lows in the mid 20's for the valley and low 30's for the ridgelines. Temps soar to the upper 40's - low 60's Thursday, making it our weather pick of the week, with overnight lows in the upper 30's - mid 40's.
Friday and Saturday have too much disagreement among the models for us to dive into the details, however it does seem a second frontal passage will occur, bringing us another round of 12 - 16 hours of rain, followed by another round of cooler air on the backside.
Our next discussion will come out Wednesday and by then we'll have enough information to discuss Friday and the upcoming weekend.