Good Morning Folks! Gradual clearing this afternoon, coupled with a strong southwest flow into the area will push temps anywhere from 20 - 25 degrees above average, with temps in the valleys hitting the low - mid 70's! This will likely break the daily record for February 7th for almost all of our climate stations across the Carolinas, but cooler weather returns this weekend. Light showers traverse the mountains tonight and dry up tomorrow morning, with cooler temps rushing in behind the departing front on Friday. This sets up seasonal temps for Friday through the middle of next week, mainly due to a high pressure system settling into the area. Sometime late Sunday moisture overrides the cooler air, producing light rain that will be on and off late Sunday into Wednesday. If you need to get some work done when conditions are dry, we recommend squeezing everything in this weekend or else you will have to wait till next Thursday or Friday.
Temps today hit the low - mid 70's across the valleys this afternoon, while the ridgelines enjoy temps in the upper 50's with strong southwest winds around 20mph, gusting up to 40mph at times. Temps settle into the upper 30's - mid 40's tonight and clouds fill in quickly, with light showers breaking out closer to midnight and drying up around sunrise on Friday. There is a slight chance for some wintry mix above 6000', but the vast majority of us wont see anything but a light rain.
Winds remain strong throughout the day tomorrow and shift from the southwest to the northwest as the front pushes through, ushering in colder air that is likely to keep temps from rising but a few degrees from the morning lows. High temps reach the low - upper 40's depending upon elevation, however the high may occur by 10 - 11am for most locations, followed by a slow and gradual decline in temps as the day moves along. Cloudy skies start the day but sunshine is expected to takeover, with a few clouds lingering along the TN line due to NW flow. Temps overnight settle into the mid 20's - low 30's and NW winds remain strong around 15 - 25mph above 3500', gusting to 40mph at times.
This weekend will be pleasant for mid February as sunny skies sit overhead Saturday, while clouds slowly build Sunday, culminating in light showers developing around sunset and carrying over into Monday. Temps Saturday climb to the low 40's - low 50's and cool down a degree or two on Sunday, reaching the low - upper 40's due to increasing clouds. Overnight lows will be in the mid 20's for the valley Saturday night and low 30's along the ridgelines due to radiational cooling, however Sunday night most of the region will be in the low 40's due to spotty shower activity.
Looking ahead to next week, we expect light showers to continue to develop as moisture overrides the in place high pressure system and it seems this will break down sometime late Wednesday or Thursday. We'll post our next discussion Saturday and focus on the upcoming wet pattern late this weekend into the middle of next week.