A Quiet Weekend; Snow Tuesday?
The weekend will be quiet for the most part with the only action being a small disturbance passing near the region that will result in scattered light rain and snow showers late Sunday into the overnight hours (nothing to write home about). Fair weather returns briefly Monday and then a front crosses the region Tuesday, this time as a anafront which means precip falls behind the actual frontal passage, allowing for a better setup in regards to wintry precip. Nothing is set in stone at this time point in time as the models continue to go back and forth, however the setup is favorable for a region wide snow event. The real story may not be the snow (or wintry mix) on Tuesday but instead the deep cold pushing in behind the front early Wednesday. Sub freezing temps setup shop Tuesday night and do not warm above the 32°F mark for all of SW NC till early Thursday afternoon or perhaps midday Friday. Temps may moderate a bit late next week, however they will still remain below normal with no relief in sight beyond next weekend. If you need to load up on fuel or wood, do so this weekend while the weather is pleasant.
Temps climb to the mid 20's along the ridgelines and low 40's across the valleys Saturday afternoon under sunny skies, settling back into the low - upper 20's Saturday night under a handful of clouds. Sunday keeps sunny skies overhead for a few hours and by midday high clouds will be streaming overhead, followed by light snow showers above 3000' Sunday night with a wintry mix for the valleys. We don't expect much accumulations along the ridgelines, if any at all, as this event is short lived and weak at best. Temps Sunday night settle into the mid 20's - low 30's depending upon elevation.
Clearing skies take over early Monday and mostly sunny skies settle in for the remainder of the day, allowing temps to push into the upper 30's to near 50°F depending upon elevation. Clouds fill in Monday night and starting sometime before sunrise Tuesday is when the uncertainty begins; timing, precip intensity and possible back fill of precip questions come into play. What we do know is that the anafront will provide some snow in the beginning, perhaps kick over to a wintry mix and some models point to moisture filling back in as additional energy swings through the area. For now we are playing the conservative card and won't discuss any accumulations and likely won't have any ground to stand on till late Saturday/early Sunday. Regardless of what falls, temps Tuesday night will allow for any standing water, slush or snow to freeze over and if you live in a shaded area, it may take till Friday or Saturday to completely melt away. Temps Monday night dip into the upper 20's - upper 30's, climb to the low - upper 30's Tuesday and crash to the mid single digits - mid teens Tuesday night.
Wednesday through Friday looks fair at this point in time but even with sunshine overhead, the frigid temps will keep all of us huddled indoors. Our next discussion will come out Sunday.