Good Afternoon Folks! As most of can gather the precip is slower to arrive than previously forecasted, with the bulk of the rain now expected overnight into Sunday as opposed to this afternoon. This round of precip will exit Sunday morning, followed by a second round that will include an isolated threat for freezing rain or drizzle Sunday night. Precip lingers across the region Monday, winding down late in the day and sunshine is slated to return Tuesday. Temps will respond to the upper level ridge and abundant sunshine, pushing to slightly above normal levels Tuesday through Thursday. Clouds fill in Thursday and a round of rain or high elevation snow is possible Friday into next weekend.
Isolated light showers will continue across the region and as the main event arrives, its likely some sleet will mix in with the rain, however the warm nose will kick over everything to a cold rain by the late evening hours. Temps will be just above freezing tonight as they settle into the mid - upper 30's for most of SW NC, with the exception being Transylvania county and the French Broad Valley as cold air damming keeps wintry precip alive; moderate to significant icing possible in places like Brevard, Hendersonville, etc.
Showers wind down tomorrow morning and as the low pressure system tracks northward along the coast, a second weaker low will trail behind, allowing light and isolated showers to remain across the region; best coverage will be along the TN line. Temps rise to the upper 30's - mid 40's tomorrow and drop to the low - upper 30's Sunday night, providing a window for freezing rain or drizzle to fall across the higher elevations above 4000'. Wintry precip continues into the late morning hours for the higher elevations as temps struggle to rise above the low 30's along the ridgelines and low 40's throughout the valleys. Dry air swings in late in the day and shuts down any remaining precip, with overnight lows plunging to the low - upper 20's under clear skies.
Sunshine returns Tuesday and hangs around through part of Thursday and a possible rain and snow event is showing up on the models for Friday, however we'll only mention the possibility at this time and not go into any details till we are closer to the event. Temps will warm to the low 40's - low 50's depending upon elevation Tuesday through Thursday, which will be welcomed but looking ahead to the end of the month it seems a cold outbreak is on the horizon; stockpile fuel this week or next.
Our next discussion will come out Monday.