Good Morning Folks! Showers are winding down as we write this discussion but light showers are still possible as the day moves along, even with sunshine poking through the broken cloud cover. An upper level passes overhead tonight and as the overall setup pushes northeast, we will transition to NW flow, allowing moisture to wring out along the TN line and as temps fall we expect light snow to pepper the usual areas into Saturday early morning. Sunshine sets up shop Saturday and extends into Monday with temps warming as the windy and colder setup relaxes, however this will be short lived as yet another light rain event develops early Tuesday. This should be a quick in and out rain event, setting up Wednesday into late next week with another round of sunshine. Temps warm this weekend to above average levels and eventually cool back down to near normal levels by the middle of next week.
Temps will reach the upper 50's this afternoon across the lower elevations and although the widespread shower activity is pushing off to the east, isolated light showers remain a possibility into the late evening hours for most of SW NC. As we enter the nighttime hours we will begin to see moisture banking up against the TN line as NW flow develops and by the pre dawn hours temps should be cold enough to kick rain over to snow above 4000'. We don't expect much to accumulate, perhaps an inch or two for the usual suspects (Smokies, Great Balsams, etc.), however places as far south as Bryson City, Cherokee, Balsam or Waynesville could experience flurries. Temps tonight dip into the upper 20's - upper 30's depending upon elevation, alongside winds becoming steady around 10 - 20mph out of the NW, gusting upwards of 35mph across the higher elevations.
Sunshine takes over on Saturday with flurries possible till the mid morning hours for the TN line and strong NW winds should continue till the early - mid afternoon hours, with gust as high as 45mph across the highest peaks. Temps reach the low 40's across the ridgelines and low - mid 50's for the valleys. As winds die down overnight into Sunday and clear skies remain overhead, radiational cooling will likely occur, allowing temps to plummet into the upper 20's for the valley and mid - upper 30's for the ridgelines.
Sunday and Monday feature sunny skies with temps in the upper 50's - low 60's throughout the valleys, cooling off to the mid 30's - low 40's each night, with clouds developing early Monday evening. Showers move in early Tuesday morning but exit by before midday, with a possibility for sunshine later that afternoon. Sunny skies should carry over into Wednesday and Thursday, but as always we will not go into too much detail this far out in time.
Our next forecast discussion will come out Sunday.