Good Afternoon Folks! Light spotty showers are beginning to pepper the region this afternoon and will continue to do so overnight into Friday, winding down by the mid - late afternoon for most of SW NC, however moisture lingers along the TN line overnight into Saturday. With temps crashing this weekend this will prompt rain to kick over to snow for the TN line early Saturday with a dusting at best. Saturday and Sunday offer up sunshine but NW flow will usher the coldest temps of the season thus far as we experience temps that are more common in January than mid November. Sunday morning in particular will be downright chilly as temps sit in the 20's for most of the mountains. Showers move back in early Monday and exit late Tuesday evening with temps marginal for snow across the lower elevations, while the ridgelines seem to deal with a on and off wet snow, but we caution folks to take this with a grain of salt as confidence levels remain low due to the event being five days out.
Most of SW NC will pick up a half inch of rain tonight through Friday evening and a few spots may come close to the inch mark, with the best chance for higher totals closer to the GA state line. Temps tonight dip into the mid 40's - low 50's and don't move much tomorrow as they rise to the upper 40's - mid 50's depending upon elevation. The front will exit late in the day tomorrow and this is when we expect colder temps to rush into the region, kicking any remaining rain along the TN line over to snow sometime past midnight. We don't expect anything more than a dusting for the usual suspects (Smokies, Cataloochee Divide, Great Balsams, etc.) and sunny skies are likely for the majority of the region by sunrise Saturday; overnight lows dip into the mid 20's along the ridgelines and low - mid 30's for the valleys.
Similar to a day in early January we expect temps to only reach the upper 30's - upper 40's Saturday, warming a few degrees on Sunday, however winds on Saturday will be steady around 10 - 20mph, keeping the wind chill values in the 30's for most of the area. Overnight lows Saturday night dip into the low - mid 20's for the area, possibly the teens for the lowest spots due to radiational cooling. Sunday night brings with it increasing clouds ahead of the next system, capping temps to the low - upper 30's depending upon elevation.
Although the chance for snow exist early Monday morning its a long shot so we are not too excited as the best chance will be above 5000'. We don't want to go into too much detail as the potential for snow is still five days out, but do know it will be a chilly and wet start to next week. We will circle back Saturday morning to provide details on the rain and snow slated for early next week.