Passing Showers; Widespread Frost
Good Afternoon Folks! We are enjoying a gorgeous fall day across the region and although a period of light rain moves through tonight and tomorrow morning, the next seven days remain very much fall like and at times, almost winter like. A cold front is expected to swing through the region early tomorrow morning, with light showers breaking out across the region around midnight, winding down sometime before midday on Saturday. Sunshine sets up shop Sunday and holds firm through the middle of next week with seasonal temps across the Southeast. All in all, the weekend and week ahead look pleasant and we should begin to see color change in earnest these next two weeks.
Friday night brings us increasing clouds this evening and light showers past midnight, with temps quite warm compared to the past few mornings as they settle into the upper 40's - mid 50's depending upon elevation. Showers continue into Saturday morning and wind down by the midday hours with rainfall totals ranging from a quarter - half inch of rain, so not much in the way of rain but enough to keep our plants happy. Temps only reach the mid 50's - mid 60's Saturday afternoon, but remember that NW winds will pick up late in the day and remain steady around 15 - 25mph across the ridgelines (10 - 15mph across the valleys). Saturday night in particular will be windy with gust up to 45mph across the highest ridgelines and 25mph gust in the valleys, however with temps dipping into the upper 20's - mid 30's it will be frigid. The winds should keep frost formation at bay, but if you live in a sheltered holler or cove its possible frost could form on elevated surfaces. Of note is that the models show some light moisture returning to the TN line Saturday night, possibly bringing the Smokies a round of light snow or flurries, with little to no accumulation expected.
Sunday is expected to be our coldest day of the weekend and week ahead with highs struggling to rise past the low - mid 40's across the ridgelines, while the valleys only hit the mid 50's. Sunshine sits overhead and clear skies continue into Sunday night with winds dying down to a light breeze at best, prompting radiational cooling to develop that will bring temps down into the upper 20's for the valley and low - mid 30's for the ridgelines. This will definitely lead to a widespread frost and freeze for the region, so bring in your sensitive plants if you have not done so already.
Monday through Wednesday of next week keeps sunshine overhead, however temps rise ever so slowly but remain seasonal. Monday features an afternoon high in the low 60's for the valley, warming to the mid - upper 60's by Wednesday. Overnight lows generally dip into the low - upper 30's each night, so patchy frost is a good bet each morning.