Good Afternoon Folks! This is a late Wednesday post, so the timeline of the discussion will run from tonight into early next week and for those who love cooler temps and the first widespread round of frost, this forecast is for you! Clear skies continue Thursday and Friday with temps slightly below normal, however a cold front swings through Friday evening and lingers long enough on Saturday to keep spotty showers going through the morning hours. Everything will clear out early Sunday morning but not before temps drop below freezing along the TN state line, prompting light snow showers to develop across the Smokies, Mt Mitchell and perhaps as far south as the Great Balsams. Dry conditions return Sunday and continue through Tuesday of next week, with our coldest night of the season slated for Sunday night as temps plummet into the 20's and 30's across the region, prompting a freeze for most of SW NC.
Clear skies tonight alongside light northeast winds will bring temps down into the upper 30's - low 40's for the region, with not much of a difference based on elevation, however if the winds die down then we could end up with the valleys colder than ridgelines due to a temperature inversion. For now we think the winds will continue through most of the night, keeping frost at bay expect for those deeper coves in our sheltered valleys, but nothing widespread.
Thursday and Friday offer up sunshine and temps only reaching the mid 60's across the lower elevations, struggling to rise past the mid 50's across the ridgelines. Clear skies each night bring temps down into the upper 30's - low 40's Thursday night, however with clouds moving in late Friday overnight lows will settle into the upper 40's - low 50's. Scattered showers will pepper the region during the evening hours, beginning sometime around 7 - 9pm and continue into Saturday morning, with coverage scaling back to the TN line as the day moves along. a half inch is likely for the region, with higher amounts closer to the TN line.
Temps Saturday reach the low 50's - low 60's across the region and although clearing skies will take place late in the day, the TN line will hold onto moisture as the front leaves behind a short lived NW flow event (nothing to write home about). Temps Saturday night will dip back into the 30's and settle below freezing above 5500' across the TN line, prompting light snow showers and flurries till sunrise on Sunday.
Sunday through Tuesday of next week return sunshine and dry conditions to the region, with temps only reaching the mid 40's - mid 50's Sunday afternoon, slowly warming back to the mid 50's - mid 60's by Tuesday. Temps Sunday night plummet to the upper 20's across the valley and low - mid 30's for the upper elevations as radiational cooling takes place overnight into Monday, allowing widespread frost and freeze to occur.