The Heaviest Rains stay East of SW NC
Good Morning Folks! Sobering rainfall totals continue to come in from Southeastern NC with Morehead City leading the way as of Friday midnight, with a total of 23.75" and numerous foot plus totals across the coast. Another 10 - 20" of rain is expected over the next 24 hours for the above mentioned area, with the heavy rain pivoting through the Piedmont and eventually crossing the NW NC mountains and heading north from there to the Ohio Valley. This track takes the center of what will be the remnants of Tropical Storm Florence over our area and because the heaviest rains are to the east of the center, SW NC will be spared the heaviest rainfall.
Our neighbors across the Piedmont and NW NC mountains will pick up anywhere from 6 - 12" of rain, leading to flash flooding and possible landslides. Our area will still pick up a good deal of rain with Jackson County picking up anywhere from 3 - 6" of rain, while Haywood county picks up 4 - 8" of rain, with the highest amounts along the Great Balsams due to the northeasterly flow from the storm. Areas to the west of Jackson County will receive less rainfall and totals should be in the 2 - 4" range with the higher amounts found along the northeastern facing slopes. All told this will be heavy rain event for the region but not as severe or damaging as it could have been if the storm took a more southern route across N GA. We feel confident the track from National Hurricane Center will hold but if the storm does move south, the above total will increase, however the models have been very in line with one another as of late, indicating higher than normal confidence.
Today (Saturday) will feature high clouds streaming overhead from Florence with spotty showers arriving late and shower coverage becomes widespread Sunday, waning sometime Monday as Florence lifts to the north. Temps will rise to the upper 70's today across the valley, cool down a degree or two Sunday due to the rain and then rise back to the upper 70's Monday. Overnight lows dip into the low - mid 60's for most all of SW NC.
By Tuesday dry air will begin to filter into the area and allow sunshine to setup shop for the remainder of the week, which is certainly welcomed but temps will respond and rise to the low - mid 80's by the middle of next week.
We'll provide an update tomorrow morning to ensure the models keep to the overhead storm track as opposed to a more southerly one, but all in all the threat has subsided for our region, whereas it has increased for our easterly neighbors.