Good Morning Folks! The setup remains the same since our last update, with southerly flow dominating the pattern across our region, eventually transitioning to easterly flow around Wednesday. This translates into increased shower chances with rainfall totals around 1 - 3" by Thursday morning, with the higher totals likely along the escarpment. Looking into the latter part of the week, Tropical Storm Florence's path is still not set in stone, although landfall along the east coast does look more and more like a certainty at this point in time. What this means for our region has yet to be determined as we could be in the subsidence region of the system, which would mean less rainfall or a track further south and west could put in the divergence region, translating into high amounts of rainfall for the escarpment in particular. We'll know more Monday afternoon and provide an update Tuesday morning to ensure enough data has been ingested into the models to help refine the forecasted track of the storm.
Regardless, the next few days will be muggy, wet and warm as above average temps continue across the Southeast, especially at night as overnight lows sit roughly 8 - 10 degrees above normal.
Showers develop this afternoon (Sunday) and move across the region with some heavy downpours possible, but for the most part passing light - moderate showers will make up most of the action, developing closer to sunset. Shower activity will remain active through the night, although coverage will wane a bit and temps will go from the low 80's this afternoon to the mid - upper 60's. There will be a good deal of sunshine this morning after the fog lifts but high clouds from the west will stream in late, alongside clouds produced by developing showers.
Monday through Wednesday features scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, with greater coverage on Monday and Wednesday than compared to Tuesday. Temps hold to the upper 70's - low 80's across the valleys and peak to the upper 60's - low 70's along the ridgelines, with overnight lows still in the mid - upper 60's. The start of the week (Monday - Tuesday) will bring us an inch of rain for most and as we transition to easterly flow Wednesday, the escarpment area (Lake Toxaway, Cashiers and Highlands) will pick up the bulk of the rain as moisture banks against the rising mountains; possibly 1 - 2" Wednesday into Thursday.
Keep an eye on the National Hurricane Center forecast regarding (currently) Tropical Storm Florence as this storm will strengthen quickly over the next two days, with a much more precise track available to us by Monday or Tuesday.