Good Afternoon Folks! We're almost to the end of the work and school week, with the upper level ridge continuing to dominate the overall weather pattern but the models point to a breakdown of the ridge this weekend, setting up an increasing chance for showers. We don't expect a washout but passing showers are a good bet and perhaps enough to have you reschedule your outdoor plans. The upper level ridge will shift east by the weekend, with a high pressure system in the Northeast setting up a damming pattern (easterly flow into the mountains) and when coupled with a stalled front to our west, shower chances ramp up. Beyond Sunday the picture is fuzzy at best as the biggest player to consider is Hurricane Florence, with no emerging trend as to whether it will make landfall or curve out to sea as it approaches the eastern seaboard. Believe us when we say no outlet or meteorologist has a handle on its path and none of us will till late this weekend, so don't change plans just yet if you are worried about it making landfall sometime next week.
Looking at our region we expect isolated thunderstorms Friday with sunshine to start the day and partly cloudy skies late, much like the past few days with temps once again reaching the upper 60's along the ridgelines and mid 80's throughout the valleys. Overnight lows dip into the low - upper 60's Friday night with fog developing past midnight and we foresee no threat to the local high school football games across the region.
Saturday and Sunday will be thick with moisture and the silver lining will be slightly cooler temps as they push into the upper 60's - low 80's Saturday, possibly staying below the 80°F mark for the valleys on Sunday. All of this will be due to thickening cloud cover and scattered showers each afternoon and night, with rainfall totals totaling to a half inch or more for the region Saturday and Sunday. So again, not a washout but wet enough to consider bringing the cookout inside or perhaps shortening your hike to beat the rain.
Monday through the middle of next week is a tossup, however the chance for showers should remain above average and temps about the same as this weekend, but we don't have much confidence in the models to dive into the details at this point in time. We'll circle back Saturday morning to provide an update, hoping the models can work out some kinks as Florence inches closer to the east coast. ENJOY!