5 - 7" of rain Tuesday - Thursday
Good Morning Folks! We have had passing showers and thunderstorms slide across the region since Monday morning and the 24 hour max rainfall total this morning is out of Balsam Grove Fire Dept., with a total of 1.18". Elsewhere across the region, roughly a tenth to a quarter inch of rain has fallen, more so along and near the escarpment. The brief highlight aside, we are expecting widespread heavy rainfall today through Thursday, with rainfall amounts likely to exceed four inches for all of SW NC, with the escarpment in particular featuring a range of 5 - 7" through Thursday evening. This has prompted the NWS to issue a Flash Flood Watch, meaning flooding conditions are likely and if you know creeks and streams that typically rise during heavy rains, you can put money on them breaking their banks this go around, especially for those along and near the SC state line.
This setup is due to an upper level low dropping into the MS valley today and when combined with a high pressure off the eastern seaboard, we'll find copious amounts of Gulf moisture pouring into the region, setting up an extremely muggy and primed environment for heavy rains. This conveyor belt of moisture will relax by Friday but the models suggest it peaking Thursday afternoon, which is not ideal seeing how we'll pick up several inches of rain today and Wednesday, setting the stage for peak flooding on Thursday.
In particular, towns such as Lake Toxaway, Brevard, Cashiers, Glenville, and Highlands will pick up the most rainfall, however further into SW NC will also experience heavy rains and localized flooding, so keep your guard up if you live anywhere in the mountains. We expect scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with the main threat being heavy downpours and possibly storms that will train or stay put over one particular location. With the increase in clouds and shower coverage, temps today will only make it to the mid 60's - upper 70's depending upon elevation. We expect 1 - 2" by this time tomorrow, with the bulk of the action occurring this afternoon into the evening hours. Temps settle into the low - mid 60's, mainly due to the excessive moisture levels in place.
Wednesday and Thursday both keep the heavy rainfall alive and at times we may experience strong winds or sudden downpours, as microbursts remain a possibility, even in this soupy environment. Again, temps will be cooler than normal as clouds and showers pepper the region or of the southeast, with highs only reaching the mid 60's along the ridgelines and mid 70's for the deeper valleys.
The upper level trough fills in and moves out by Friday, allowing temps to push into the mid 60's - upper 70's once again, however scattered shower chances linger and should continue into Saturday. We'll circle back with an update Wednesday morning and remember, "Turn Around, Don't Drown"!!!