Good Morning Folks! Shower activity as of late has been confined to the escarpment and the highest 24 hour total comes out of the Brevard area, just outside of the airport, where 0.71" of rain fell since Tuesday morning. We'll enjoy a short lived reprieve from the rain today through early afternoon Friday and sometime after sunset Friday, showers are expected to push through the area, with numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms developing Saturday. Although Saturday will feature the best chance for showers, pop up thunderstorms and a muggy setup holds firm Sunday into the middle of next week. This increase in shower activity and return to muggy conditions might be a blessing to some as temps should cool down to normal levels, mainly due to the increase in cloud cover.
The front just to our south will linger there till it fizzles out on Thursday, however the headline for today (Wednesday) will be the invasion of drier air into the region. Locations that will benefit the most from the change from muggy to dry will be near or along the ridgelines as cooler temps couple with low dewpoints, making it feel more like early fall than mid summer. Temps today will push into the low 70's - upper 80's depending upon elevation under more sun than clouds and dip into the mid 50's - low 60's tonight under clear skies.
Thursday and Friday both offer up pleasant mid July days, however shower activity slowly creeps back into the picture, more so along the escarpment or area in which the mountains drop off to the foothills. This includes Brevard, Lake Toxaway, Hendersonville and so on, that will have a better shot at an afternoon shower than places such as Bryson City, Andrews, and Franklin. Temps both days push into the low 70's - mid 80's and the models point to a large complex of storms moving through the region Friday night, perhaps just before sunrise on Saturday; overnight lows settle back into the low - mid 60's. All of this is due to the high pressure system in the northeast spinning easterly flow into our region and although this would result in a cloudy, cool day if it were spring, fall or winter, it being summer means there is enough moisture to tap into that showers will develop as moisture banks against the escarpment.
Saturday will continue the transition as an upper level low somewhere in the Ohio Valley spins energy our way, resulting in several rounds of showers and thunderstorms for our region. This will flip the areas that pick up the highest amounts of rain from the escarpment to the TN line as we transition to a northwesterly flow. Temps should cool down to the mid 60's along the ridgelines to the low 80's in the valley. With this in mind, we hold to our recommendation on Monday to push your outdoor plans to Sunday if rain would be an issue.
Sunday into early next week should be a somewhat normal setup with temps in the low 70's - mid 80's each afternoon, coupled with pop up showers and thunderstorms after several hours of sunshine to start the day. We will provide another update Friday morning.