Good Afternoon Folks! Easterly flow will dominate our weather pattern today (Friday) through Saturday night and then a slight shift to a southeasterly flow will occur Sunday, with a stronger southerly flow setting up shop by early next week. Although high pressure to our northeast will help keep shower activity down a bit compared to normal for our neighbors in the Boone area, our area of the mountains will remain in the soupy airmass, mainly due to the stronger easterly flow. A cold front looks to push into the mountains Tuesday into Wednesday, so we can expect an uptick in shower coverage and intensities by the middle of next week. Temps all the while will be just around normal for mid July, with a slight cool down possible after the cold front swings through, but it being Friday we cannot make any promises this far out in time.
We can never truly say where exactly showers and thunderstorms will pop up, however we can point to areas of increased likelihood and for locals or out of town-ers who know the region well, it wont come as a surprise that the escarpment will be the prime spot for showers today through Monday. Places like Lake Toxaway, Cashiers, and Highlands will experience afternoon thunderstorms today through Monday, peaking in coverage Sunday, with an overnight round of showers moving through before sunrise on Saturday. An inch is possible this afternoon and through the overnight hours for the areas mentioned above, while locations that are tucked further into SW NC may only pick up a half inch of rain.
Saturday features another half inch potential for most of the region, however by Sunday an inch of rain could fall for most of the area, with our money on the escarpment for an inch plus reading. If you have outdoor plans, don't cancel them, but simply keep an eye to the sky and perhaps be prepared to move indoors by the mid - late afternoon hours.
Temps today will reach the mid 70's - upper 80's and when coupled with high humidity levels, expect heat indexes to surpass the 90°F in places like Sylva, Bryson City, and Cullowhee. These levels hold true through the weekend, with a possible 90°F reading by early next week for our deeper valleys. If the cool down does occur post frontal, it wont be much, perhaps a few degrees but the moisture levels will be comfortable and it being mid July, we'll take whatever we can get!
We'll post another update Monday the 16th as the pattern wont change much from now until then and we will need a day or two to fine the frontal passage details. Have fun this weekend!