Forecast Fail; Warmer Temps Return

Good Morning Folks! Our forecast for the recent snow event failed with only those above 3800' - 4000' picking up decent accumulations, although there were a few locations in the lower elevations that picked up an inch. Mt LeConte didn't event come close to our 6" plus forecast, with only 3.5" falling. For those wondering what went wrong, the bulk of forecasters put all their chips on the anafront having a robust precip shield behind the actual front (never materialzied), which is normally the case, but of course the Southeast can redefine the word normal during the winter months. We are not down in the dumps for busting the forecast as its always a challenge for our part of the state, but we

Snow Tuesday; DEEP COLD Wednesday

Good Afternoon Folks! Thank you for patiently waiting for the latest update regarding the incoming snow storm. We took longer than normal to update the site as the models this morning showed a reduction in totals, but the overall trend is still the same, which is why not much has changed from our previous forecast. We are still going with a region wide event, with the valleys picking up light amounts of snow and the higher elevations racking up anywhere from 3 - 6" depending upon location. Snow winds down Tuesday afternoon and the coldest temps of the year follow in its wake, with blustery conditions extending through the day on Wednesday, calming down Thursday morning. Sub freezing temps wi

Region Wide Snow Tuesday

Good Afternoon Folks! We are wrapping up the weekend under high clouds and somewhat pleasant temps considering the date and tomorrow looks even better. We highly encourage everyone to get outside tomorrow to enjoy the warmer weather as the hammer drops Tuesday, with sub freezing temps beginning Monday evening, lasting till Friday or Saturday for the higher elevations (Thursday for the valleys). An arctic front swings through early Tuesday and snow falls just before and also behind the departing front, with accumulations at this time ranging from 1 - 6" depending upon elevation; the higher up you go, the more snow you will find. Temps will be down right frigid Wednesday and Thursday, moderati

A Quiet Weekend; Snow Tuesday?

The weekend will be quiet for the most part with the only action being a small disturbance passing near the region that will result in scattered light rain and snow showers late Sunday into the overnight hours (nothing to write home about). Fair weather returns briefly Monday and then a front crosses the region Tuesday, this time as a anafront which means precip falls behind the actual frontal passage, allowing for a better setup in regards to wintry precip. Nothing is set in stone at this time point in time as the models continue to go back and forth, however the setup is favorable for a region wide snow event. The real story may not be the snow (or wintry mix) on Tuesday but instead the de

Colder Temps and Sunny Skies

Good Afternoon Folks! It is late in the afternoon on Wednesday and the front is still hung up in middle TN, slated to arrive during the late night hours. Although we expected more spotty showers than we have experienced today, we are still on track for 2 - 3" of rain by the time everything winds down Thursday morning. As the front crosses the region late tonight a shift in the overall flow will occur and NW winds will usher in colder air, allowing light snow to fall shortly before sunrise. Sunshine takes over for the rest of the day and fair weather lingers into Saturday, however temps will be slightly below normal and for late January that does translate to a cold setup. The models continue

Wintry Mix then Rain Early Wednesday

Good Afternoon Folks! As we slowly work our way through this frigid day temps continue to remain below freezing across the higher elevations. Worth noting, Mt Mitchell dropped down to an impressive -6.4°F this morning with a wind chill of -21.3°F; numerous high elevation sites were slightly below or above the zero mark. Sunshine today spills over into tomorrow and temps warm slightly, peaking in warmth for the week on Wednesday with showers returning to the region. As the event unfolds late Tuesday night and into early Wednesday morning, there is the likelihood for all wintry precip types to fall as we transition from snow to sleet to freezing rain and finally over to a cold rain. Showers wi

Single Digits and Snowfall

Good Afternoon Folks! We are tracking the current rain event as it slides across the region, expected to transition from rain to snow late tonight into Sunday morning and wind down sometime Sunday afternoon. The coldest air of the season arrives Sunday night and sets up a frigid start to the school and work week, even with sunny skies overhead. Fair weather lingers into Tuesday but will be short lived as a low pressure system pushes across the Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday, delivering another soaking rain upwards of 2 - 3". The models hint at yet another deep cold snap for late next weekend, with a possible clipper Saturday that could wringe out snow for the region but we are too far out

Heavy Rain Saturday Night; TN Line Snow Sunday

Good Morning Folks! Showers will sweep the region this afternoon and evening, pushing east tonight, which will setup a dry but cloudy day Friday. A second and much stronger system will move through the region Saturday, dropping 2 - 4" of rain throughout the day and night, followed by cold air surging into the region that will kick over rain to snow for the TN line. All precip will wind down Sunday afternoon and our coldest day of the season is slated for Monday with highs near or below freezing above 3500'. Fair weather should be overhead on Monday and Tuesday with showers returning by the middle of next week. Overall the wintry precip threat this weekend will be limited to the usual NW flow

Showers Thursday Night; Rain/Snow Sunday

Good Afternoon Folks! We have enjoyed some much needed sunshine today (Tuesday) and we'll experience another round tomorrow, with clouds filling in late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, ahead of the next rainmaker which is slated to arrive Thursday evening. Showers will move quickly across the region, clearing out Friday and setting up a brief period of sunshine before more clouds develop late Friday night. Showers break out once again late Saturday and peak in coverage overnight into Sunday, with a rain/snow elevation dependent setup occurring on Sunday as NW flow cranks up across the mountains. Precip should wind down Sunday night and then a deep cold settles across the nation, p

A Dreary 48 Hours; Sunshine Tuesday

Good Afternoon Folks! As most of can gather the precip is slower to arrive than previously forecasted, with the bulk of the rain now expected overnight into Sunday as opposed to this afternoon. This round of precip will exit Sunday morning, followed by a second round that will include an isolated threat for freezing rain or drizzle Sunday night. Precip lingers across the region Monday, winding down late in the day and sunshine is slated to return Tuesday. Temps will respond to the upper level ridge and abundant sunshine, pushing to slightly above normal levels Tuesday through Thursday. Clouds fill in Thursday and a round of rain or high elevation snow is possible Friday into next weekend. Is

Wintry Precip Chances Dwindle

Good Afternoon Folks! Temps are slightly warmer than expected this afternoon, pushing into the mid 40's for most lower elevation locations, while the ridgelines remain below freezing. Cataloochee Ski Area is currently making snow and with conditions ripe to make snow tonight through at least Saturday afternoon, they will likely take advantage of the short window. All eyes are focused on the upcoming wintry precip threat, however we still have a full day of sunshine to get through before any precip arrives. Temps tomorrow will be a handful of degrees warmer than today, cooling back down on Saturday to levels similar to today, perhaps colder. As the system moves through the region Saturday int

Colder Temps; Possible Snow Saturday

Good Morning Folks! The timing of the light rain today has been pushed back about 6 - 8 hours from our previous forecast discussion on Sunday, with isolated light shower chances now lingering into the evening hours. A cold front crosses the region today, however southwesterly flow beforehand will create a blustery spring like day across the area. Once the front crosses, northwest flow takes over and cold air pours into the region, holding firm through at least Saturday. Winds pick back up Wednesday afternoon for the higher elevations, with gust up to 65mph and as high pressure moves in Thursday winds should calm down. Sunny skies sit overhead Wednesday through Friday and the models point to

Colder Temps Return Wednesday

Good Morning Folks! We are warming up nicely after the frost start with sunshine overhead today and temps pushing to above normal levels. Easterly flow tonight will begin to develop high clouds across the region, which will continue to build throughout the day tomorrow in advance of the quick moving front off to our west. This front will feature light showers that exit just after sunrise Tuesday, with clearing skies just before midday. A second front will swing through Wednesday, however this front will be dry and mainly usher in strong NW winds and colder, more seasonal temps. Seasonal and at times below average temps, will setup shop Wednesday through next weekend, with the models hinting

Light Snow Saturday Morning; Sunny into Monday

Good Morning Folks! Showers are winding down as we write this discussion but light showers are still possible as the day moves along, even with sunshine poking through the broken cloud cover. An upper level passes overhead tonight and as the overall setup pushes northeast, we will transition to NW flow, allowing moisture to wring out along the TN line and as temps fall we expect light snow to pepper the usual areas into Saturday early morning. Sunshine sets up shop Saturday and extends into Monday with temps warming as the windy and colder setup relaxes, however this will be short lived as yet another light rain event develops early Tuesday. This should be a quick in and out rain event, sett

Heavy Rain Shifts to Friday

Good Afternoon Folks! Isolated light showers will continue to pepper the area this afternoon, with coverage increasing tonight into Thursday morning. Shower coverage will wind down a bit Thursday but pick up late Thursday night and peak in coverage Friday afternoon, ending early Saturday morning. There is a small chance for light snow early Saturday morning for the TN line and perhaps flurries as far south as Maggie Valley or Waynesville, but nothing to write home about. Sunshine returns this weekend and fair weather should extend into Monday, with another passing round of showers scheduled to arrive sometime Tuesday. Temps will be in the mid 50's for the remainder of the week, warming to th

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