A Soggy End to 2018; Heavy Rain Thursday

Good Morning Folks! We'll close out 2018 with more showers and another 0.5 - 1.5" across the region depending upon location. Showers pick up this afternoon and become widespread closer to midnight tonight, winding down Tuesday morning. There will be a short break in the action Tuesday, however showers return Wednesday afternoon, becoming heavy and widespread Thursday, eventually winding down sometime Friday. The Wednesday through Friday event will be a two part play, with moist upsloping providing showers Wednesday into Thursday and then an upper level low swinging overhead Friday bringing us additional showers and even some high elevation snow! We don't have a firm grasp on the snow chances

Asheville Sets New Annual Rainfall Record

Good Morning Folks! We called for 3 - 5" over the course of two days and already our forecasted totals have been surpassed, particularly along the escarpment (SC state line are). Several 6" plus totals are showing up on the rainfall map, with numerous 5" plus amounts stretching all the way down into Cullowhee Valley, with WCU picking up 5.21" over the past 24 hours (ending 8:30am). We expect another 1 - 3" before its all said and done and a 8 - 9" event total is not out of the question for places like Lake Toxaway, Highlands and Rosman. Keeping with the excessive rain line, it seems Asheville will break its record for the wettest year on record, with a current total of 76" and counting. The

Heavy Rain on Thursday and Friday

Good Morning Folks! With heavy rain on the way for Thursday and Friday, followed by several rounds of light - moderate rainfall Sunday through Tuesday, we highly encourage everyone to get outside today as it will be on the drier days over the next five days. The heavy rain event should unfold sometime Thursday morning and ramp up in both intensities and coverage Thursday night into Friday morning. Showers and even thunderstorms pass overhead Friday with a brief dry spell Saturday before another round of rain moves through Sunday. Temps all the while will be above freezing, translating to only rain over the next several days with a possible wet snowfall Sunday night for elevations above 6000'

Santa brings SW NC Fair Weather for Christmas

Good Morning Folks! Some housekeeping first. Our next discussion will come out Wednesday but no need to fret as the weather will be fair and quiet after today's passing showers, with our next rainmaker arriving late Thursday and lingering into Saturday. Showers are passing overhead as we speak and coverage will begin to wind down by the mid afternoon hours, however a piece of energy will swing nearby to the north tonight, allowing light snow showers to fall across the TN line. We don't expect much in the way of accumulations, perhaps an inch or two for the Smokies and maybe a dusting up to an inch for Cataloochee Ski Area. Temps tonight will dip into the low - upper 20's tonight, alongside w

Elevation Dependent Snow

Good Morning Folks! The forecast is on track with several sites along the escarpment such as Lake Toxaway, Highlands and several in the Panthertown Valley area reporting 3" plus totals for the event, while the rest of us in SW NC are reporting 1.5 - 2.5" totals. More rain is falling this morning and will continue to do so till the early afternoon hours, as we expect rain to kick over to snow from the top down, meaning the valleys won't get in on the action till this evening. This delayed transition of course will limit accumulations, however for those above 4000', this could be a nice little event before Christmas. Sunshine will move in tomorrow and linger into Sunday morning, however clouds

From Rain to Snow to Sunshine

Good Afternoon Folks! Clouds have filled in across the region and will thicken as the afternoon and evening move along, with showers moving in shortly after midnight. Widespread showers make up all of the action for Thursday with coverage waning a bit on Friday, however showers still continue, although at some point during the afternoon on Friday rain will kick over to snow for the higher elevations. This is due to the overall flow transitioning from the southeast to the northwest, ushering in colder air while precip continues to move across the region. The NWS has mentioned this setup is analogous to past events that have produced high totals for the usual NW flow locations, however all of

Sunny and Warm through Wednesday

Good Morning Folks! The rain event is over and clouds are beginning to thin, however light showers continue to pepper the TN line as NW flow slowly winds down as the low pressure system moves northeast. Rainfall totals for the past three days amount to 0.50 - 1" for most of the interior valleys, while the Southern Highlands Plateau picked up 2 plus inches; Highlands reported the highest total at 3.15". Sunshine will return tomorrow and linger through Wednesday, with a dry front moving through Tuesday that may cool temps a bit, but overall we remain a handful of degrees above average. Moisture returns late Wednesday with light showers breaking out Thursday and if the models have it figured ou

Sunshine and Melting

Good Afternoon Folks! We are finally back in the mix after digging out from over a foot of snow. The event is obviously over and NWS is putting out preliminary totals, which match our SNOWCAST map to an extent but of course those who live deeper into SW NC, such as Bryson City and so on were left with little to no snow. The highest amounts fell across the Southern Highlands Plateau and along the Great Balsams, with Cataloochee Ski Area also cashing in, maxing out close to 20". We'll wait till NWS publishes the final snowfall map to list notable totals for our region, which is likely to occur Tuesday or Wednesday. The forecast looking ahead is for temps to dip into the upper teens - mid 20's

Last Minute Updates; Nowcasting

Good Morning Folks! It's 9am and light wintry precip has begun to fall across the area in a few spots and we expect coverage to increase as the morning moves along, with widespread coverage by the afternoon hours. For most of us the precip will start out as a sleet/snow/rain mix, quickly becoming all snow as the day moves along. For those up high, say above 4000', it should be an all snow event for the most part, however all of the area will experience periods of sleet and even freezing rain at times, mainly because the Cold Air Damming setup isn't able to push dry and cold air across the entire area. Temps are currently in the low - upper 30's across the region and will hold to these levels

A Conservative Forecast

Good Morning Folks! Thank you to everyone who has been patiently waiting for the final SNOWCAST map to come out this morning. The models last night all but moved the snow to the north and west of us, however the short term models this morning, in particular the NAM, have brought the storm back and in some spots, with higher totals than previously forecasted. With this in mind, we are taking a conservative approach and going somewhere in the middle as the potential for higher amounts is certainly there, but the potential for ice and sleet also exists. The challenging part for this storm is the warm nose, coupled with how far down the mountains Cold Air Damming sets up. One extreme gives us a

EPIC Snowstorm on the Horizon

Good Afternoon Folks! We'll fly through the short term forecast (Thursday and Friday) and focus on the weekend forecast as the models continue to show a truly epic and region wide event, one that doesn't come around often. We need to first caution everyone that the information discussed below is likely to change, although the impacts should roughly be the same as we expect power outages and region wide road closures that could lead to school closings for early next week. We have posted our first attempt of a SNOWCAST map this afternoon (see home page) with a final version coming Friday morning as we fine tune the specifics of the forecast. Thursday and Friday feature slightly below average t

Snowstorm Hype and Expectations

Good Afternoon Folks! We are enjoying this warmer weather today and so should you as Old Man Winter returns later tonight, with temps below average beginning tomorrow, hanging around through the end of the weekend. Although everyone and their brother is talking about the potential for snow this weekend, let's take a glance at the week ahead before boarding the hype train. A front swings through tonight, ushering in colder air and light, spotty snow showers for the TN line after midnight. A second disturbance swings nearby Tuesday afternoon, prompting another round of light snow for the TN line area that will hang around till Wednesday morning, with light accumulations at best. Thursday and F

Warm through Monday; Winter Returns Tuesday

Good Afternoon Folks! Light to moderate showers are passing through the region as we speak and we expect this to continue into the pre dawn hours on Sunday, clearing out shortly after sunrise. Sunshine quickly fills in tomorrow morning and fair weather lingers into Monday with temps today through Monday above average. A front pushes in late Monday night that will usher in NW flow and colder temps, with a shortwave passing overhead late Tuesday into Wednesday that may produce some high elevation snow, especially along the TN line. We are not getting too excited at this time, mainly because the snow looks to fall in the usual locations during a NW flow event, but the chance remains for a light

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