Showers Wed; Frost Thursday Night
April 13, 2021 (10:45am)
Good morning folks! We had a few spots dip into the upper 30's this morning but most of the area started out in the 40's. Shower chances hold strong for Wednesday and this will be a light event for the region with totals ranging from 0.25 - 0.75" as we deal with thunderstorms, creating a hit and miss situation for totals. Most of the action will occur later in the day and during the evening hours, with showers drying up before midnight and clouds clearing by sunrise on Thursday. Cooler temps and dry air pours into the region as NW flow develops on the backside of the departing cold front, with temps 10 - 12 degrees colder than today and Wednesday! Sunshine will help offset some of the cooler weather and confidence has increased since our last discussion that Thursday and Friday will be dry. We mentioned last Sunday that there was no frost or freeze risk for this week but this has changed. Thursday night now features temps in the 30's regionwide and frost is likely in the sheltered hollers and coves, while the higher elevations may be spared due to strong NW winds around 10 - 20mph throughout the day and night. The weekend is still split among the modeling with some keeping all of the action to our south and others bringing in scattered showers. We are following the NWS lead on this one and will go with a drier forecast for the weekend, although there is likely to be an uptick in cloud cover that will help keep temps running about 3 - 5 degrees below normal.
Sunshine today will be interrupted at times as partly cloudy skies traverse the region and its possible a light shower or two peppers the highest ridgelines, but for the most part it will be a dry day. Temps warm to the low 60's - mid 70's depending upon elevation and it may feel a touch cooler under the passing cloud cover. Most of the cloud cover will exit the region this evening and temps should bottom out to the mid - upper 40's across the region.
Wednesday features an uptick in cloud cover during the morning hours, followed by scattered light - moderate showers after midday, mixed in with a handful of thunderstorms that will bring us 0.25 - 0.75" of rain. Most of the action occurs from the early afternoon hours into the mid evening hours, with all rain ending before midnight. Temps settle into the upper 30's - mid 40's Wednesday night as NW flow picks up steam behind the departing front.
Dress for a windy, cooler day on Thursday with temps only reaching the upper 40's - mid 60's across the region, coupled with NW winds around 10 - 25mph throughout the day. Sunshine will prevail and help offset these cooler temps and it will feel more like a fall day than a spring day, especially as dewpoints bottom out to fire danger levels. Temps overnight bottom out to the low - upper 30's across the region under clear skies and the only thing stopping frost from forming will be NW winds. If you live in a spot that typically is sheltered from the wind, then you are likely to experience patchy frost by sunrise on Friday.
Sunshine continues into Friday and temps increase slightly over Thursday as they reach the low 50's - upper 60's across the region, likely hitting the 70°F in the paved downtown spots like Franklin, Bryson City, Dillsboro, and Sylva. Temps dip into the mid 30's - low 40's Friday night but this time the cooler weather will only be found across the higher elevations, with possible frost above 3500' by sunrise on Saturday.
The weekend is not set in stone and this forecast may change but for now we are going with high, thin clouds overhead both Saturday and Sunday, with temps warming to the mid - upper 60's across the valleys. We'll circle back on Thursday and by then we should have a better handle on the possibility for rain on Saturday.
Most recent snowfall:
April 1st (dusting on ridges)
Most recent regionwide freeze:
April 4th (mid 20's)
0.25 - 0.75" of rain will fall on Wednesday. Showers end Wednesday night, with sunshine by sunrise on Thursday.
Frost is likely Thursday night if your location is somewhat sheltered from NW winds; low - upper 30's.
Temps only make it to the mid 60's Thursday and mid - upper 60's Friday through Sunday.