Lows in the 40's; Sunny through Fri
June 16, 2021 (10:00am)
Good morning folks! No changes to the forecast for the remainder of the work week as we still expect sunny skies Wednesday through Friday, with temps warming to the upper 80's by Thursday, holding to this above average level into Saturday. The models are beginning to agree with each other regarding this Sunday's potential rainfall and the likely washout early next week. Overall, a high pressure system to our north will maintain NW flow across the region into Friday, eventually migrating to our east by the end of the week. This will set the stage for moisture levels to ramp up Saturday, possibly enough to fire up an isolated shower or two, followed by scattered pop up showers on Sunday. At the same time, a possible tropical low pressure system will migrate out of the Gulf of Mexico and take aim at our region, possibly arriving sometime early Monday with enough moisture and lift to produce widespread rainfall. Lastly, a front swings into the region around the same time the low pressure system exits the region, giving us another boost of moisture and lift to keep shower activity going into Tuesday. We are not expecting a major event but you can never say never with a low pressure system originating out of the Gulf, so we will keep an eye on this but at a minimum it seems early next week will be wet.
Sunny skies sit overhead today (Wednesday) through most of the day on Saturday. Temps will be comfortable and dewpoints low, bottoming out tonight into Thursday and slowly rising with each passing day, peaking to uncomfortable levels Sunday through Tuesday. Temps warm to the mid 60's - low 80's depending upon elevation today and Thursday, warming to the upper 60's - upper 80's on Friday as NW flow winds down across the region. Overnight lows will bottom out to the mid 40's - mid 50's tonight under clear skies and warmup slightly to the upper 40's - upper 50's Thursday night. As moisture returns to the region this weekend, overnight lows will only make it down to the upper 50's - mid 60's; clear skies through Friday night.
Saturday offers up a mostly sunny day but as moisture increases so do shower chances, with isolated pop up showers likely around 2 - 5pm. Temps return to the upper 80's across the valleys and it will feel more like the low 90's as dewpoints increase with each passing day. Overnight lows settle into the upper 50's - mid 60's under partly cloudy skies, alongside fog developing throughout the valleys.
Sunday through Tuesday will be wet, with scattered showers ending the weekend, followed by widespread rain Monday into Tuesday. As of right now (and this will change) the models show 2 - 4" of rain from Sunday into Tuesday and this may increase but we are not confident enough to discuss anything higher until we near the event. If this pans out then temps will cool back down to the low 80's across the valleys, but of course if it trends drier (which it doesn't look to be doing) then we'll hold to the mid - upper 80's.
We'll stop here and circle back Friday with a fine tuned timeline for the early week washout coming our way. ENJOY!
A shower or two is "possible" Wednesday along the highest ridgelines but sunshine will continue to reign supreme Wed through Fri.
Temps peak to the upper 80's on Thursday, holding to this level into Saturday.
Moisture returns Sat and an isolated shower or two is likely, followed by scattered showers Sun.
A washout is on the table for the Monday into Tuesday; not set in stone but trending that way.