Two Rounds of Rain; Chilly Thur - Sun
October 25, 2021 (11:45am)
Good morning folks! We have an active week ahead with two rounds of rain, the first sweeping the region this afternoon (Monday) with scattered coverage and the second round starting late Wednesday night, ending sometime Saturday afternoon/evening. This second round of rain will feature widespread coverage and peak rainfall looks to occur Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, with most of SW NC picking up at least one inch of rain, while the Highlands Plateau and escarpment manage 2 - 3" during the same timeframe. Sandwiched in between will be a sunny Tuesday and Wednesday as the frontal passage today ushers in a high pressure system for the early part of the week. This high pressure system will scoot off to the northeast Wednesday and an upper level trough approaches the region at the same time, bringing north a warm front that will initiate shower development overnight into Thursday. An upper level low forms out of the upper level trough and lingers through late Friday, exiting to the northeast but not fast enough as Saturday experiences lingering showers in the newly developed NW flow, maintaining a chilly and damp setup for pre Halloween celebrations this weekend. Saturday night looks fine, but we do expect chilly conditions with temps in the 40's across the valleys and a stiff NW breeze; sunshine returns Sunday. Temps go from the low 70's today before the frontal passage, down to the low 60's Tuesday, back to the low 70's Wednesday and then a gradual drop from the upper 50's Thursday to the low - mid 50's Friday and Saturday; across the lower elevations, much colder above 4500'.
We'll kickoff the timeline Tuesday and after 0.10 - 0.50" of rain from the first round of rain Monday afternoon/evening, we'll enjoy a dose of sunshine as high pressure moves overhead. Temps only make it to the upper 40's - low 60's depending upon elevation, which is roughly 2 - 4 degrees below normal for late October. Clear skies Tuesday night bring temps down into the low - upper 30's.
Wednesday will be warmer as temps reach the low 70's across the valleys, but we'll enjoy another round of sunshine for most of the day, with clouds building by the mid afternoon hours. Isolated showers develop as soon as the late evening hours for the escarpment and Plateau, while the rest of SW NC waits till the pre dawn hours for showers to develop. Temps overnight settle into the low - upper 40's.
Thursday and Friday will be our wettest days of the week with widespread shower coverage from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, preceded by scattered coverage Thursday morning. Most of SW NC will pick up an inch of rain during this window, while the Plateau does it's thing and wrings out 2 - 3" from Highlands - Cashiers - Lake Toxaway. Shower coverage scales back Friday afternoon to scattered coverage and intensities drop to light rain, with coverage dropping slightly by Saturday, however the upper level low will keep chances going into the late afternoon hours on Saturday. Temps will be noticeably cooler as they only reach the upper 40's - upper 50's Thursday, holding to the low 40's - mid 50's on Friday (depending upon elevation). Overnight lows dip into the low - upper 40's Thursday night and upper 30's - mid 40's Friday night.
Halloween activities on Saturday look quite chilly with mostly cloudy skies before midday, spotty light showers into the late afternoon hours, all working against afternoon highs and holding them to the low 40's - mid 50's depending upon elevation. If you are heading out to local festivals or trick or treat events, grab the rain jacket and dress for a damp, chilly day, but don't be discouraged as this setup is almost perfect for Halloween (minus the rain). For those heading out later that night, temps will bottom out to the low 40's across the valleys, under clear skies after 7 - 10pm.
We'll stop here and circle back on Wednesday with a better timeline for the second round of rain Thur - Sat and a deeper dive into how long sunny skies stick around starting Sunday. ENJOY!
The wintry weather that was possible this upcoming weekend has waned but we'll continue to keep on the Fri and Sat night setups.
After Monday's rain we'll be treated to sunshine both Tues and Wed, with temps reaching the mid 60's Tuesday and low 70's Wednesday.
Clouds develop late Wed and showers take over Thur morning, peaking in coverage and intensities Thur afternoon into Fri morning.
Most of SW NC will pick up an inch of rain, while the Plateau collects 2 - 3".
Light showers will linger into Sat and take most of the day to wind down.
High temps go from the upper 50's Thursday to the low - mid 50's for Friday through Sunday, although Sunday offers up sunshine to round out the month of October.
Peak color is underway across the Parkway with the mid elevations transitioning to moderate - peak color this week!
Coldest temp of the season occurred 10/17 with a low of 25°F atop Mt Mitchell.
Next discussion comes out Wednesday morning.